Sunday, November 21, 2010

Why the Cleveland Browns will finish 8-8 this year



In his column in today's Plain Dealer, Terry Pluto tells us this:

1. The next five games are against Jacksonville, Carolina, Miami, Buffalo and Cincinnati. Only Sunday's opponent (5-4 Jacksonville) has a winning record. Carolina and Buffalo are 1-8, Cincinnati is 2-7. At 5-5, Miami has quarterback problems and is only 1-4 at home. Now is the time for the Browns to capitalize on the confidence from playing four of the NFL's best teams to a 2-2 record, along with the enthusiasm of the fans and the weaknesses in the schedule. The final two games are against the Steelers and Ravens, both in Cleveland.

So, notwithstanding today's game, if the Browns continue to play as hard and as well as they have been, and they play against worse competition, my guess is they will go 4-1 over the next five games. They probably won't beat both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Even a split would be optimistic, but let's say it happens. This would have them finish at 8-8.
But, here's the interesting point: Even as bad as the Browns' record has been, if they happen to win five games in a row, then bear both the Ravens and the Steelers,they would host Pittsburgh at 8-6. This would mean they could finish at 10-6. The best case for such a finish would be if Pittsburgh and Baltimore are already resting key players for the playoffs. That would, however, mean that the entire AFC East would have to tank, and fall back to ward the Browns in the wild card standings, which doesn't seem likely.
Because there are so many good AFC teams, even at 10-6, the Browns would probably miss the playoffs, like in 2007.
If the Browns had won just a couple of their close losses at stood at, say, 5-4, they would probably have a legitimate shot at the post season.

No comments: