Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Why the Cleveland Indians will still be awful in 2011


In a recent article at fanhouse.com penned (or rather, typed) by Pat McManamon, formerly of the Akron Beacon Journal, Cleveland Indians general manager in waiting Chris Antonetti said he thinks the Indians will be better next year.
“Our expectations are that we'll be a better team next year. And hopefully appreciably better,” was exactly what Antonetti said.
It would be nice to think this will happen, but I doubt it. Here’s a series of reasons:
No matter what else happens, the Indians need a couple of power hitters. They need a couple of middle of the order hitters like Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Juan Gonzales, Lou Boudreau, Rocky Colavito, Boog Powell, Andre Thornton, Joe Carter, Tris Speaker or someone like that. They don’t have a single player right now who fits that mold.
While Shinn Soo Choo is a really fun player to watch, he isn’t going to hit 40 home runs and drive in 120. He’s probably a number two hitter on a championship team, not a three place hitter or a cleanup guy.
They don’t have a middle of the order, and there are no sure-fire candidates.
There’s no way to know what the Indians will get from Grady Sizemore. Even if he comes back full throttle and hits third, that still only fills half of the bill. Besides, he usually hits leadoff.
Carlos Santana showed great promise, but he will lost a half season of development time. I hope he turns into Manny Ramirez, but right now, it’s an “if.”
Matt LaPorta has had stretches during which he has shown some power and overall hitting ability, but a quick glance at his numbers shows he hasn’t been really productive yet. More telling is that he usually hits sixth, behind (ahem) Shelley Duncan and Jayson Nix.
Side-note: One clue that says you are a pretty awful baseball team is that you have guys like Duncan and Nix hitting in the middle of your order.
Speaking of Nix, the infield defense has been awful.
Nix has been hitting since he got to Cleveland, but for some reason the Indians have insisted on playing him at third base where he has been clearly out of position.
Luis Valbuena and playing defense shouldn’t go in the same sentence. At second, he has shown awful hands, but tried to make up for it by being consistently out of position.
Many of the defensive ratings show Asdrubal Cabrera to have below-average range, Terry Pluto wrote recently. Oddly, Cabrera came to the major leagues as a great glove, no-hit guy. He effectively has reversed that at the major league level, being a great hitter but below average shortstop.
The sad thing is that both Cabrera and Nix and pretty good second basemen, but the Indians don’t seem to have a defensive whiz ready to go at shortstop.
It looks as though they don’t like Jason Donald’s bat or glove at short, as he has been the primary second baseman since Cabrera returned. To his credit, he always seems to hustle and play smart wherever he plays.
As for the pitchers, I could drag this out and go through the list, but here’s the short version: Other than Fausto Carmona, the Indians do not have a battle-tested pitcher. And, who knows what Carmona will be like next year?
Usually, in the season like this one, one or two guys that you never heard of become key players. This year, I don’t know if anyone has stepped up, and almost all the veterans have been traded.
Who are the Indians best three players going into next year? Probably Cabrera, Choo and Sizemore.
Compared with the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Twins, White Sox, Rays or Rangers, and you’ll see the Indians are very far behind the pack.

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